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Дневной график: в очередной раз пробит нижний конверт Боллинджера, что говорит об очень большой силе продавцов. Но пара уже очень перепродана, что делает возможной восходящую коррекцию. Целью такой коррекции может стать все пространство до средней полосы Боллинджера (1.2221), откуда падение, вероятно, продолжится.
Н4: два локальных уровня сопротивления, на которых так же возможны развороты вниз - 1.2043 и 1.2162 (средняя и верхняя полосы Боллинджера).
Н1: активный локальный ADX пока можно соотнести и к окончанию коррекции (см. красную стрелку), и к началу локального импульса вверх (см. синюю стрелку). Таким образом, контрольным уровнем сегодня является 1.2017.
Ожидания:
Основной сценарий - пробой сопротивления 1.2017 и дальнейший рост к 1.2162.
Альтернативный сценарий - касание зоны 1.2017 и затем новое снижение к 1.1930.
Торговые решения:
1. buystop 1.2024, stop loss 1.1970, take profit 1.2160.
2. в случае подтверждения альтернативного сценария - продажи из зоны 1.2017.
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